高技术产业三阶段创新效率变动研究

将内部非期望产出纳入投入产出指标体系，运用SBM模型和EBM模型测度高技术产业技术开发、技术转化和市场化3个阶段创新效率。结果发现：①3个阶段静态效率变化趋势为先略升后下降，东部先下降后上升，西部和东北先略升后下降，中部持续下降；②技术开发阶段动态效率呈增长态势，技术转化和市场化阶段则呈持续衰退态势，东部效率一直保持领先地位，东北和西部次之，中部最后；③技术开发阶段动态效率主要受效率变动驱动，技术转化和市场化阶段由相对较强的技术变动主导，东部由技术变动推动，中部和西部受效率变动驱动，东北在技术开发和市场化阶段受效率变动拉动，而技术转化阶段则依赖于技术变动的推动作用。     

汇率基本面模型对人民币汇率的预测能力

本文选取五个主流的汇率基本面模型,使用2005年汇改后的人民币兑美元、欧元、日元、英镑汇率数据进行样本内拟合和样本外预测,并通过计算损失函数和SPA统计量比较五种模型的预测能力。实证结果表明：随机游走模型短期内具有更优的预测能力,但中长期内,汇率基本面模型具有更优的预测能力;总体来讲,汇率基本面模型的预测能力优于随机游走模型,人民币汇率不存在“汇率失联之谜”;对不同的货币,具有最优预测能力的模型不同。     

Rater Rating‐Level Bias and Accuracy in Performance Appraisals: The Impact OF Rater Personality,Performance Management Competence,and Rater Accountability

We studied the problem of rating‐level bias and rating accuracy among retail managers of a Fortune 500 retailer. Hypotheses were tested regarding the relationship among managers’ Five‐Factor Model (FFM) personality characteristics, their competence in performance management, and their levels of bias and accuracy in appraisals made in situations differing on levels of rater accountability. Associate store managers (N = 125) rated subordinates, peers and managers under conditions of high and low rater accountability. We found support for the stability of rating‐level bias across rating situations. Raters’ levels of agreeableness and assertiveness were related to mean rating levels across situations, and U‐shaped relationships were found in predicting one measure of rating accuracy such that high and low levels of these two traits were related to greater rating inaccuracy. Conscientiousness scores were significantly (and negatively) correlated with highly accountable mean ratings of subordinates. Performance management competence was related to rating‐level bias in both high‐ and low‐accountability conditions and contributed incremental validity in the prediction of rating level and rating accuracy. Our results indicate that the most lenient raters are more agreeable, less assertive, and less competent in performance management. These raters may also be less accurate. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

出口贸易、工业碳排放效率动态演进与空间溢出

以2003~2012年我国30个省级经济单元为研究对象,从技术进步视角出发,利用包含非期望产出的SBM模型测算各省份工业碳排放效率,运用非参数Kernel密度估计方法研究各省份出口贸易和工业碳排放效率的动态演进过程,构建空间杜宾模型进一步考察出口贸易对工业碳排放效率的影响。研究结果表明：我国东部地区的工业碳排放效率最高,依次为中部、西部地区和东北综合经济区;核密度曲线展现出口贸易整体处于上升态势,工业碳排放效率呈现双峰趋同;在考虑空间因素后,出口贸易对本地区的工业碳排放效率改善产生促进作用,但对其他地区的工业碳排放效率增长产生抑制作用,也有碍于所有地区碳排放效率的提升。     

WEIGHTED‐AVERAGE LEAST SQUARES (WALS): A SURVEY

Model averaging has become a popular method of estimation, following increasing evidence that model selection and estimation should be treated as one joint procedure. Weighted‐average least squares (WALS) is a recent model‐average approach, which takes an intermediate position between frequentist and Bayesian methods, allows a credible treatment of ignorance, and is extremely fast to compute. We review the theory of WALS and discuss extensions and applications.     

上市公司内控信息披露的研究--以山东好当家海洋发展股份有限公司为例

作为信息公开的经营实体,上市公司受到社会各界广泛关注,作为投资者,股东希望公司能合法经营,同时能保障效益、持续增长,实现战略目标。因此需要关注公司的各种报告,了解公司的经营业绩及内部控制运行状况。从2001年开始,上市公司信用遭到广泛质疑,披露内部控制就显得尤为重要。对此,美国出台了SOX法案,随后,我国沪深两所也颁布了《上市公司内部控制指引》。本文针对境内上市的、非国有控制的、规模中等的山东好当家海洋发展股份有限公司在《指引》发布前后内部控制披露与内部控制自我评价方面的情况进行对比分析,得出相关结论。     

国际原油价格对我国新能源行业股票价格的波动溢出效应研究

在大气污染日益严峻的情况下,新能源行业受政府大力支持和投资者青睐。新能源与原油一定程度上互为替代品,理论上国际原油价格必然对我国新能源行业股票价格有显著的波动溢出效应,但有些学者却持反对态度,认为我国股票市场对外还没有完全开放,新能源行业发展又很不成熟,所以该溢出效应很难显著。文章运用VAR- Asymmetric- BEKK模型进行比较研究得出：在未去除我国整体股市行情因素时,国际原油价格波动对我国新能源行业股票价格波动溢出效应不显著;而在去除我国整体股行情因素时,国际原油价格波动对我国新能源行业股票价格波动溢出效应在1%显著性水平下显著。表明存在从国际原油价格向我国新能源行业股票价格的波动溢出效应,只是该溢出效应被我国股市总体行情掩盖了。     

Dynamic model averaging in large model spaces using dynamic Occam׳s window

Bayesian model averaging has become a widely used approach to accounting for uncertainty about the structural form of the model generating the data. When data arrive sequentially and the generating model can change over time, Dynamic Model Averaging (DMA) extends model averaging to deal with this situation. Often in macroeconomics, however, many candidate explanatory variables are available and the number of possible models becomes too large for DMA to be applied in its original form. We propose a new method for this situation which allows us to perform DMA without considering the whole model space, but using a subset of models and dynamically optimizing the choice of models at each point in time. This yields a dynamic form of Occam׳s window. We evaluate the method in the context of the problem of nowcasting GDP in the Euro area. We find that its forecasting performance compares well with that of other methods.     

Economic impact of hypoglycemia among insulin-treated patients with diabetes

Objective: The objective of this study was to assess the cost of hypoglycemic events among insulin-treated patients with diabetes and the potential cost savings to a hypothetical US health plan and employer of reducing hypoglycemic events with a device intervention.

Methods: A cost-calculator model was developed to estimate the direct costs of hypoglycemic events, accounting for diabetes type, age, and event severity. Model inputs were derived from published incidence rates of hypoglycemic events and direct medical costs. Assumed intervention efficacy was based on published studies of an emerging technology which yielded 72.2% (LGS Trial; ACTRN12610000024044) and 31.8% (ASPIRE Trial; NCT01497938) reductions in severe and non-severe hypoglycemic events, respectively. Model outcomes—including the number of severe (requiring medical assistance) and non-severe events, and direct/indirect medical costs (excluding intervention costs)—were evaluated over a 1-year period for a hypothetical health plan and employer perspectives.

Results: In a health plan with 10 million enrollees, patients without the intervention would have experienced 0.09 and 14.60 severe and non-severe hypoglycemic events per patient per year (PPPY), respectively (vs 0.02 severe and 9.96 non-severe events with the intervention). This translated into total direct medical cost savings of $45 million ($177 PPPY) for the health plan. For an employer with 100,000 employees, the intervention would have yielded additional savings of $492 PPPY in indirect costs.

Conclusion: Insulin-treated patients experience hypoglycemic events, which are associated with substantial direct and indirect medical costs. The cost savings of reducing hypoglycemic events need to be weighed against the costs of using diabetes device interventions.     

Stock price crash risk and internal control weakness: presence vs. disclosure effect

This study examines the stock price crash risk for a sample of firms that disclosed internal control weaknesses (ICW) under Section 404 of the Sarbanes‐Oxley Act (SOX). We find that in the year prior to the initial disclosures, ICW firms are more crash‐prone than firms with effective internal controls. This positive relation is more pronounced when weakness problems are associated with a firm's financial reporting process. More importantly, we find that stock price crash risk reduces significantly after the disclosures of ICWs, despite the disclosure itself signalling bad news. The above results hold after controlling for various firm‐specific determinants of crash risk and ICWs. Using an ICW disclosure as a natural experiment, our study attempts to isolate the presence effect of undisclosed ICWs from the initial disclosure effect of internal control weakness on stock price crash risk. In so doing, we provide more direct evidence on the causal relation between the quality of financial reporting and stock price crash risk.